New Seat Details - Durham North West

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Durham North West been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
LAB	28,087	54.9%
CON	16,612	32.4%
LIB	3,729	7.3%
UKIP	2,110	4.1%
Green	560	1.1%
OTH	98	0.2%
LAB Majority	11,475	22.4%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Durham North West: Map

List of old seats forming part of Durham North West

Old seat: Durham North West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Durham North West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Durham North West				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Durham	Benfieldside	6,180	Durham North West	1,532	2,023	435	139	38	0	0	0	4,167
Durham	Burnopfield and Dipton	5,962	Blaydon	1,521	2,201	233	141	36	0	0	0	4,132
Durham	Consett North	5,761	Durham North West	1,473	1,782	633	293	34	0	0	0	4,215
Durham	Consett South	2,886	Durham North West	599	1,216	92	67	15	0	0	0	1,989
Durham	Crook	8,995	Durham North West	2,128	3,229	460	224	188	0	0	0	6,229
Durham	Deerness	784	Durham North West	154	299	54	16	4	0	0	0	527
Durham	Delves Lane	6,026	Durham North West	1,221	2,693	228	132	31	0	0	0	4,305
Durham	Esh and Witton Gilbert	4,285	Durham North West	959	1,306	341	247	25	0	0	0	2,878
Durham	Lanchester	5,871	Durham North West	1,360	1,949	183	361	30	0	0	0	3,883
Durham	Leadgate and Medomsley	6,440	Durham North West	1,630	2,516	231	163	38	0	0	0	4,578
Durham	Tow Law	3,233	Durham North West	780	1,377	97	79	17	0	0	0	2,350
Durham	Weardale	6,406	Durham North West	1,767	2,016	226	148	45	0	0	0	4,202
Durham	Willington and Hunwick	6,523	Bishop Auckland	1,392	2,702	185	142	28	0	0	0	4,449
	Total	69,352		16,516	25,309	3,398	2,152	529	0	0	0	47,904

The full details of these calculations are given on the Durham North West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Durham, City of

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Durham, City of, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Durham, City of				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Durham	Belmont	10,115	Durham, City of, and Easington	2,130	3,760	738	112	144	0	0	79	6,963
Durham	Brandon	7,146	Durham North West	1,119	3,364	275	79	40	0	0	21	4,898
Durham	Coxhoe	9,280	Billingham and Sedgefield	1,452	4,133	308	102	44	0	0	36	6,075
Durham	Deerness	8,234	Durham North West	1,494	3,620	336	100	44	0	0	70	5,664
Durham	Durham South	1,619	Durham, City of, and Easington	672	828	253	25	49	0	0	32	1,859
Durham	Elvet and Gilesgate	4,081	Durham, City of, and Easington	1,496	2,112	600	185	125	0	0	40	4,558
Durham	Esh and Witton Gilbert	1,907	Durham North West	396	697	138	62	11	0	0	7	1,311
Durham	Framwellgate and Newton Hall	10,175	Durham North	2,398	3,199	929	298	159	0	0	86	7,069
Durham	Neville's Cross	6,502	Durham, City of, and Easington	1,856	2,201	763	64	143	0	0	20	5,047
Durham	Sherburn	6,531	Durham, City of, and Easington	1,274	2,484	427	71	34	0	0	48	4,338
Durham	Trimdon and Thornley	462	Durham, City of, and Easington	67	235	12	15	2	0	0	2	333
Durham	Willington and Hunwick	299	Bishop Auckland	54	137	8	4	2	0	0	4	209
	Total	66,351		14,408	26,770	4,787	1,117	797	0	0	445	48,324

The full details of these calculations are given on the Durham, City of seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Durham North West

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Durham North West
Durham	Benfieldside	6,261	Durham North West	1,532	2,023	435	139	38	0	0	0	4,167
Durham	Brandon	7,210	Durham, City of	1,119	3,364	275	79	40	0	0	21	4,898
Durham	Consett North	6,335	Durham North West	1,473	1,782	633	293	34	0	0	0	4,215
Durham	Consett South	2,990	Durham North West	599	1,216	92	67	15	0	0	0	1,989
Durham	Crook	9,361	Durham North West	2,128	3,229	460	224	188	0	0	0	6,229
Durham	Deerness	791	Durham North West	154	299	54	16	4	0	0	0	527
Durham	Deerness	8,338	Durham, City of	1,494	3,620	336	100	44	0	0	70	5,664
Durham	Delves Lane	6,469	Durham North West	1,221	2,693	228	132	31	0	0	0	4,305
Durham	Esh and Witton Gilbert	4,324	Durham North West	959	1,306	341	247	25	0	0	0	2,878
Durham	Esh and Witton Gilbert	1,931	Durham, City of	396	697	138	62	11	0	0	7	1,311
Durham	Lanchester	5,833	Durham North West	1,360	1,949	183	361	30	0	0	0	3,883
Durham	Leadgate and Medomsley	6,879	Durham North West	1,630	2,516	231	163	38	0	0	0	4,578
Durham	Tow Law	3,532	Durham North West	780	1,377	97	79	17	0	0	0	2,350
Durham	Weardale	6,314	Durham North West	1,767	2,016	226	148	45	0	0	0	4,202
	Total	76,568		16,612	28,087	3,729	2,110	560	0	0	98	51,196

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Durham North West. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Laura Pidcock (LAB)
County/Area:	Durham (North East)
Electorate:	76,568
Turnout:	66.9%

Durham North West: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Durham North West: Overview

Introduction